{"id":34413,"date":"2025-09-03T10:36:59","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T08:36:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egn.com\/dk\/?p=34413"},"modified":"2026-02-25T13:30:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-25T12:30:32","slug":"a-cautious-economic-landscape-for-late-2025-optimism-and-unpredictable-players","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egn.com\/dk\/a-cautious-economic-landscape-for-late-2025-optimism-and-unpredictable-players\/","title":{"rendered":"A Cautious Economic Landscape for late 2025: Optimism and Unpredictable Players"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As we move into the final months of the year, the economic outlook is marked by both cautious optimism and a range of unpredictable factors that make it difficult to plan with certainty. According to Chief Economist Las Olsen, we find ourselves in an unusual situation: <em>\u201cIt is a bit of a strange situation we are in, because there is really a lot to worry about politically, and we can also see that people are generally quite pessimistic about the economy,\u201d<\/em> he explains. Conflicts, trade disputes, and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve are among the elements that cause concern. Still, the short-term picture is not as bleak as one might fear: <em>\u201cWhen we talk about the outlook in the short term \u2013 the economic outlook for the rest of this year \u2013 then it doesn\u2019t actually look that bad.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Olsen points out that the global economy continues to show moderate progress, even if growth is far from booming. <em>\u201cThere is still progress in the global economy. This has actually been the case over the summer as well \u2013 despite tariff hikes and unrest \u2013 we have still seen this positive development,\u201d<\/em> he says. Consumers\u2019 purchasing power is improving, real wages are rising, and inflation remains under control, creating the foundation for normalized growth. <em>\u201cThere is a basis for having reasonable growth \u2013 not strong growth, but a normalization.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-slowdown-in-the-us\"><strong>Slowdown in the US<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The development in the United States plays a central role in the global outlook. In recent years, the country has surprised with strong growth driven by productivity increases and a growing labor force. But according to Olsen, that picture is changing: <em>\u201cThat is clearly no longer the case. Immigration has completely come to a halt, and that means we are not going to see the same growth rates as we have from the U.S. in recent years.\u201d<\/em> He expects growth going forward to settle between 1 and 1.5 percent, compared to the 2\u20133 percent seen previously. The risk is that this slowdown could be sharper than anticipated, potentially pushing both the American and global economy into recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-volatile-stocks\"><strong>Volatile stocks<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>For Denmark, the picture is mixed. Major companies such as Novo Nordisk and \u00d8rsted dominate the headlines and have faced volatile expectations. Yet Olsen stresses that even after downgrades, Novo Nordisk still plays a significant role: <em>\u201cThey still expect strong growth this year and next year\u2026 Novo Nordisk alone contributes perhaps one percentage point to Danish GDP growth.\u201d<\/em> At the same time, revised statistics have adjusted the broader picture: <em>\u201cDenmark is instead an economy that very much resembles the rest of Europe \u2013 an average European economy in terms of growth, just with Novo Nordisk on top.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most Danish companies, however, are not primarily dependent on the U.S. market but on nearby countries such as Germany and Sweden. Growth there has been modest but is expected to improve. Olsen highlights Germany\u2019s massive investment plans in defense, infrastructure, and healthcare: <em>\u201cThey will spend what corresponds to over 2% of GDP annually for the next 10 years\u2026 and this will also mean that in the longer term it will be necessary to have a somewhat higher interest rate level in Europe.\u201d<\/em> In the short term, however, he sees a positive combination of lower interest rates, increased household purchasing power, and higher public demand that can benefit Danish companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-soft-landing\"><strong>The soft landing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One interesting difference from earlier economic cycles is that the world appears to have avoided a deep crisis following the surge of inflation in 2021\u201322. <em>\u201cWe have actually achieved what is called a soft landing,\u201d<\/em> says Olsen. Inflation has come down to more reasonable levels without a sharp rise in unemployment, and in Denmark unemployment remains low. This means we are not facing a dramatic recovery phase but rather a normalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this unusual soft landing also leaves room for new risk factors. Olsen warns that the greatest unpredictability comes from the U.S.: <em>\u201cThere is enormous unpredictability, and you can also say that with these very large tariff hikes\u2026 we have to acknowledge that it has been more than 100 years since we last experienced tariffs of this magnitude. To believe that we know what is going to happen \u2013 we can\u2019t.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, the economic landscape is one where cautious optimism coexists with uncertainty. Growth is present, but not excessive. Political and trade-related tensions can quickly change the rules of the game, and no one can say with certainty how the next chapter will unfold. As Las Olsen sums up: <em>\u201cThere may well be something we are overlooking \u2013 something that can hurt in ways we are not used to.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-learn-more-at-the-webinar\"><strong>Learn more at the webinar<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Las Olsen visits EGN\u00b4s webinar studio on September 11th. During this global live webinar, Olsen will speak a lot more about the current economic situation and how it affects everyday business life. <a href=\"https:\/\/egn.com\/events\/economic-landscape-of-late-2025\/\">Sign up for the event right here<\/a>. Be aware that only EGN members can participate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are interested in learning more about our peer groups, <a href=\"https:\/\/egn.com\/dk\">click right here.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The final months of 2025 bring both cautious optimism and significant uncertainty for the global economy. Chief Economist Las Olsen highlights how moderate growth, shifting U.S. dynamics, and major European investments shape the outlook \u2014 while unpredictable political risks and trade tensions remain potential disruptors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":28865,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[280],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-future-of-work"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<title>A Cautious Economic Landscape for late 2025: Optimism and Unpredictable Players<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Chief Economist Las Olsen on the economic landscape of late 2025: moderate growth, U.S. slowdown, European investments\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/egn.com\/dk\/a-cautious-economic-landscape-for-late-2025-optimism-and-unpredictable-players\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Cautious Economic Landscape for late 2025: Optimism and Unpredictable Players\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The final months of 2025 bring both cautious optimism and significant uncertainty for the global economy. Chief Economist Las Olsen highlights how moderate growth, shifting U.S. dynamics, and major European investments shape the outlook \u2014 while unpredictable political risks and trade tensions remain potential disruptors.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/egn.com\/dk\/a-cautious-economic-landscape-for-late-2025-optimism-and-unpredictable-players\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EGN Danmark\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EGNdanmark\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-03T08:36:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-25T12:30:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/egn.com\/dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2023\/11\/Las-Olsen-01-1440x810-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"450\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" 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